The aggregated Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index (sresi®) is a measure of the expectations of market players for developments over the next twelve months and is generated on the basis of an assessment of the economic developments and the movement of prices on the real estate investment market.
The index reflects the assessment of more than 200 survey respondents who represent an investment and appraisal volume of more than CHF 300 billion. Since it was launched in 2012, the sresi® has established itself as a leading qualitative indicator of forthcoming developments in the Swiss real estate investment market.
Beat Seger explains the most important findings of the 2022 study. Watch the video:
The most important findings of 2022
sresi® at its lowest value since its inception
The aggregated Swiss Real Estate Sentiment Index reached a new low of -32.5 points. The majority of survey participants see the end of the super cycle for real estate investments in Switzerland. In addition to the poor economic outlook, declines in investment property prices are also expected.
Negative economic outlook
The positive peak value of +63.8 points from the previous year was no longer confirmed. On the contrary, the assessment of economic developments has clouded over.
With the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the onset of inflation, the assessment of the development of the economic situation in the coming 12 months has deteriorated significantly with an index value of -51.4 points.
Price decreases expected
For the first time since the start of the survey, participants have given an explicitly negative assessment of price developments over the coming 12 months, with an index value of -27.7 points.
The analysis of the sub-indices predicts resilience only for residential properties and central location:
- Residential real estate: residential real estate continues to be the market participant’s preferred Swiss real estate investment. With an index of +35.8 pts., this is the only area where rising prices are expected. Accordingly, with an index of -103.2 pts., the survey participants find the supply of adequate investment opportunities to be scarce.
- Retail properties: the index for retail properties has been negative since the start of the survey. At -88.9 pts, however, it is well above the low of -146.8 pts from the 2020 pandemic year.
- Office space: the price expectations index for office space stands at -47.4 points (previous year: -32.8 points), which is slightly above the average assessment of the past 10 years.
- Location: at +31.4 points, central locations continue to be attributed positive price potential. However, the index level is significantly below the assessments of previous years. The expectations for the price development in secondary locations have decreased by 81.6 points from the positive peak value of +55.4 points in the previous year to negative -26.2 points. At -86.9 points, survey participants expect a clearly negative price trend for peripheral locations.
The end as the beginning of challenges
In addition to the sresi® we also do deep dives on certain topics each year with the help of surveys. This year, we ask the question about the end of the super cycle and look at ESG measures and the changing environment.
The end of the super cycle for Swiss real estate investments has been reached. 90% of respondents agree with this statement at least in part.
63% of the survey participants assume that the costs resulting from the upcoming ESG measures are not fully reflected in the portfolio values. This assessment may impact future portfolio values and, when combined with market participants' assessment of risk, will impact the transaction market.
The respondents assume that the changed general conditions may lead to devaluations for investment properties in the next two years. This assessment is clearest for properties with sales use (non-food), with 96% at least partially agreeing.
Also, for properties purchased for less than 2.2% net initial yield, 95% at least partially agree with the expected devaluations. For residential properties, the statements are less clear. Although respondents expect further, moderate price increases for residential real estate, 56% also expect falling values in this segment. This may indicate a perception bias between appreciation and pricing.