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Fueling the future

Fueling the future

Preparing the downstream oil and gas industry for the mobility revolution


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The increasing adoption of electric vehicles will ultimately have a profound impact on oil refining, retail fuel and lubricants demand. Oil and gas companies know this.

And yet, it’s common to underestimate how the confluence of multiple forces outside the oil and gas industry will increase the velocity and impact of the switch to the electric from the internal combustion engine. Specifically, we believe the introduction of autonomous vehicles, coupled with Mobility as a Service, will combine with additional societal and technology trends to drive a more precipitous disruption than typically expected, one which is likely to pull electric vehicles into the market and shift the composition of the fleet much quicker than currently anticipated.

These external forces will usher in a fundamentally new transportation paradigm and begin to disrupt downstream companies in the coming years. What currently seems like a slow-moving threat may have more near-term business implications.

Downstream oil companies may struggle with preparing for a disruption with an unclear, yet potentially accelerated, timeline. An approach to transformation that takes measured steps and addresses hotspots first can strike the balance between protecting today’s business and building tomorrow’s.

Reality Check

Your future car is autonomous, shared and electric - The oil and gas industry isn’t losing much sleep over electric vehicles. Sure, EVs are gaining popularity, but slowly. It’s hard to find charging stations, and battery costs keep EVs expensive relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Economics and convenience still favor the personally owned, gas-powered car. However, we believe forces outside the industry will combine to speed up the adoption of electric vehicles, accelerating disruption to the downstream.

Read the online publication of our latest thinking now.

Article Authors

Andy Steinhubl
Principal, KPMG Strategy

Olli Valikangas
Managing Director, KPMG Strategy

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