The automotive, transport and wider mobility market is undergoing a transformational social, technological and economic shift, fundamentally changing the way people and products are moved. Many sectors, beyond automotive and transport, are being disrupted, with new markets emerging, existing ones converging, and others declining and possibly vanishing. New entrants and start-ups are challenging incumbents, who in turn look to leverage their experience and resources to build sustainable market positions.
Amidst continued population growth, urbanisation and environmental concerns, new forms of mobility are critical to support tomorrow’s population hubs and economic activity. Today’s mobility systems suffer from congestion, inefficiency, accidents and high prices. But the future promises convenient, safe and economic mobility, with less impact to health and the environment.
Mobility transformation is fuelled by three key technology-driven disruptive trends: electrification of vehicles (EVs) and alternative powertrains, connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS). Taken independently, each would significantly disrupt the ecosystem; but in combination, they should drive unprecedented change.
These advances are set to replace our current vehicle-centric system with a radically more efficient, data-enabled and driverless ecosystem – with consumers at its heart. Users would be able to seamlessly transition between public, private, on-demand and scheduled modes of transport, with dynamic travel information enabling mid-journey changes.
As the mobility ecosystem evolves, its global value is forecast to grow to more than $1 trillion by 2030 (KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis).
At the same time, value will also shift and we expect to see different business models emerging. For example, with OEMs we see two dominant archetypes: ‘Metalsmiths’ manufacturing ever more sophisticated hardware (i.e. vehicles), alongside a new archetype, the ‘Gridmaster’. The latter would manufacture vehicles, but also provide a platform for a variety of value-adding customer services. As with all disruptive change, we expect there to be clear winners and losers.
However, the roll-out could vary significantly at both a country and city level depending on degree of urbanisation, household choice, existing options, infrastructure, and of course, local policies. Government support significantly influences all three disruptive trends. It also impacts the shape and pace of development of the new ecosystem.
From a private sector perspective, we believe change will not be driven by any one company or sector. Instead it requires unprecedented collaboration, to develop the right mobility solutions. A fast-shifting ecosystem calls for swift decisions on changes to business and operating models, partnerships and acquisitions.
In the following chapters we look at the evolving mobility landscape in greater detail, considering each of the three technology-driven disruptive trends in terms of timing, impact and implications for market participants.