In our most recent UK Economic Outlook we explore the severity of the recession in the short-medium term, how a gradual economic recovery hinges on a viable resolution to COVID-19 and the continued need for government intervention.
The end to the nationwide lockdown has seen output gradually pick up across sectors. However, uncertainty about progress in combating the pandemic and the possibility of a second wave this winter is causing major spending decisions to remain on hold.
In our report, we outline three possible scenarios for the pandemic and how they will impact the outlook for the UK economy. Timing of a vaccine, or effective treatments for COVID-19, a potential second wave and the future relationship between the UK and EU, could see GDP in 2021 oscillate from 8.4% to 4%.
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