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Key findings

  • Currently, the markets see some reversal of the oil price from the minimum values of Q1 2020 based on a gradual recovery of demand. The period of recovery can be prolonged and painful, depending on the pace of economic revival from the global recession caused by COVID-19.
  • Implementation of the OPEC+ agreement and recovery of demand stimulated growth of oil prices, gradually restoring to pre-crisis levels. In addition, reduction in investments in new upstream projects will lead to a supply decline in the mid- and long term period, which will put upward pressure on the prices.
  • Another COVID-19 outbreak in many parts of the world over the next months could be the main obstacle to the recovery of global demand for oil and petroleum products.
  • Current long-term consensus forecast for the price of Brent oil is about USD55/bbl (2020 prices).