2015 was far from a strong year on the demand side for most transport and logistics companies. World trade growth averaged barely 3 percent year-on-year in 2015 (2.6 percent until November 2016) according to CPB statistics –and the OECD notes that there had been just five years in the past 50 in which global trade had grown by 2 percent or less (a). The Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) in the major economies further support this negative view, as both the Chinese and the US PMI ended the year below the 50 percent growth mark, while the global PMI only just reached expansionary figures.

The IMF is now projecting global output growth at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017, both of which are slightly lower than forecasts issued in October 2015. On the bright side, European growth is expected to be 1.7 percent in 2016, an upwards revision of 0.1 percentage points. Emerging markets growth is expected to increase from 4 percent in 2015—the lowest rate since the financial crisis—to 4.3 and 4.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Download PDF (5.1MB)