2020 financial results so far showed that Dutch banks have been able to absorb losses stemming from financial market volatility, increased risk costs and operational costs to ensure business continuity. Although these are promising indicators of resilience, the full macro-economic impact is yet to come. Forecasters are estimating a 6%-8% drop in Dutch GDP for 2020 – roughly doubling the decline seen in 2009.
In this document, we focus on the longer-term implications for capital planning and how business model resilience has an important role to play for Dutch banks. Our goal is to define action points our clients should consider to support the way forward once the worst shock has passed.