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Market Update: Oil & Gas - August 2018
Market Update: Oil & Gas - August 2018
Trends and price volatility facing the O&G sector in August 2018.
Geopolitical Implications on the Oil Market
Recently the oil market seems to have reached stability with an oil price exceeding $70 a barrel. Considerations of geopolitical complications lead some analysts to the view that the oil price may exceed the 80 per barrel in the short to medium term period. These considerations would namely involve the reintroduction of the US sanctions against Iran and potential curtailment of its oil exports as well as the related discussions about control over the Strait of Hormuz, the major international waterway delivering Saudi oil to international markets.
The market has been also been receiving conflicting reports about whether Saudi authorities have made a decision about a delay or cancellation of the planned IPO of Saudi Aramco with an estimated valuation of $2 trillion. Regardless of the decision, this potential IPO has generated market interest
- Anton Oussov, Global Head of Oil & Gas and Head of Oil & Gas in Russia and the CIS, KPMG in Russia
Analyst estimates: oil
| 2018 | 1019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Min | 68.0 | 67.5 | 60.0 | 67.5 |
| Average | 73.3 | 72.0 | 68.3 | 69.4 |
| Median | 73.6 | 74.0 | 68.8 | 70.0 |
| Max | 77.5 | 76.0 | 74.0 | 70.0 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| June Avg | 70.3 | 67.6 | 66.7 | 67.6 |
| July Avg | 73.3 | 72.0 | 68.3 | 69.4 |
| June Median | 70.0 | 67.5 | 67.0 | 67.5 |
| July Median | 73.6 | 74.0 | 68.8 | 70.0 |
Analyst estimates: gas
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| Min | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Average | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Median | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Max | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| June Avg | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| July Avg | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| June Median | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| July Median | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Note: The forecasts/analyst estimates above from Brent & Henry Hub are an indication based on
