Sectoral impact assessment framework for governments
Economic shutdowns (such as COVID -19 in recent times) have an unprecedented impact on the economy of nations and by extension affect government organizations. Hence, during such events, governments may struggle to estimate sectoral impact, which in turn is important to prepare an action plan for a speedy and sustainable economic recovery. The paper provides a sector agnostic framework for impact assessment covering both supply & demand side of such shutdowns. Governments can use the framework to derive results through triangulation of – Cause-effect relationship analysis, Macro-economic time series valuation and Representative panel consensus of sectoral SMEs. The paper intends to derive parameters using which impact areas are likely to be identified on a priority basis and economic losses measured with greater precision. The recommendation methods used by governments during economic downturn can leverage the systems thinking approach applied in this paper to make sustainable financial decisions (which require hard quantitative insights). The paper will provide a method to governments for deriving quick qualitative and quantitative impact of such economic shutdowns and hence enable governments to become resilient and implement recovery measures with agility and effectiveness.