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UK economic outlook

Britain at a crossroads

Britain at a crossroads

The September quarterly UK Economic Outlook report looks at the challenges businesses are facing and what they should plan for, including Brexit outcomes and areas of growth.

This edition covers:

  • a forecast for the UK economy under two scenarios; a deal and a no-deal, coupled with an overview of UK economy’s recent performance;
  • an outlook for regional house prices across the UK region under Brexit scenarios;
  • a summary of what to expect in the forthcoming Autumn Budget from KPMG tax experts. 

Read the UK Economic Outlook September 2019 report.

 
 
Deal: GDP
1.4%
2018
1.3%
2019
1.5%
2020
No Deal: GDP
1.4%
2018
0.9%
2019
-1.5%
2020
Deal: Inflation vs interest rate (end-of-year)
Cloud
2.5%
0.75%
2018
1.9%
0.75%
2019
2.0%
1.0%
2020
No Deal: Inflation vs interest rate (end-of-year)
Cloud
2.5%
0.75%
2018
2.1%
0.1%
2019
2.4%
0.1%
2020
Deal: Unemployment rate
4.1%
2018
3.9%
2019
3.9%
2020
* These figures represent our central scenario under which the UK secures a transition agreement after Brexit and a relatively friction-free trade deal after that. Figures for GDP, consumer spending, investment and inflation represent % change on previous year. Figures for house prices are house price changes over the course of the year and interest rates are quoted at the end of the year deal after that. All figures represent annual averages, unless otherwise specified.
No Deal: Unemployment rate
4.1%
2018
4.0%
2019
4.8%
2020
* These figures represent our central scenario under which the UK secures a transition agreement after Brexit and a relatively friction-free trade deal after that. Figures for GDP, consumer spending, investment and inflation represent % change on previous year. Figures for house prices are house price changes over the course of the year and interest rates are quoted at the end of the year deal after that. All figures represent annual averages, unless otherwise specified.