The Advanced Air Mobility revolution

Within this decade, we will see passenger AAM offer quieter and perhaps safer alternatives to helicopter and general aviation, and onward airport shuttle, writes Chris Brown.

When meaningful automation of pilot and airspace is possible, there will be a significant cost advantage, making the passenger AAM market preferable to less flexible and more expensive infrastructure investment in road and rail.

Read more in our article The Advanced Air Mobility revolution

The future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

Despite aviation’s bounce back from the pandemic still being slower than hoped, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) revolution shows no sign of losing momentum, with dozens of deals announced already in 2022, spanning governments, producers, and airlines around the globe, writes Chris Brown.

Read more in our article The sky's the limit?

Air Taxi Readiness Index (2021)

The global VTOL market is expected to blossom in coming decades, as congested cities look for new ways to cut journey times and commuters and tourists embrace the promise of piloted and then automated air taxi flight. Morgan Stanley has estimated that the market could be worth US$1 trillion by 2040. The sector has seen a gold rush of startups and investors, breathless media reportage and futuristic demos. Many operators are expecting to commercialise their first propositions within the next three years.

On the other hand, as of 2021, the level of investor interest risks creating a bubble and subsequent crash in financial interest. Morgan Stanley’s US$1 trillion estimate, for example, is downgraded from their original total addressable market estimate of US$1.5 trillion published back in 2018. 

Find out more or download our PDF.

Ground handling beyond COVID-19

The pandemic’s impact on the aviation industry has been seismic – but not terminal. With turnaround promises expected to exceed pre-COVID levels by mid-decade, the ground handling industry cannot afford to return to pre-pandemic norms. Right now, with airports well decongested, is the time to get ahead of trends that can shape the coming decade. Christopher Brown, our Head of Strategy, outlines how airlines and airports should start planning now.

COVID-19 may have pushed the Fourth Industrial Revolution out of the headlines, but it has not stopped it. Ground handling can expect to see significant disruption in the coming decade from technologies such as: AI, Big data, IoT, EV and AV, Synthetic and hydrogen fuels and VTOL.

The ground handling ecosystem will need to evolve rapidly in response to these technologies and others. Players looking to thrive in the post-COVID normal need to assess now both the threats and opportunities presented for their long-term strategy.

Find out more or download our PDF.

Disruption beyond COVID-19

Pandemics and economic downturns expose the volatility of the aviation sector. Understandably, the impact of COVID-19, including travel restrictions, has dominated short-term commentary.

We place COVID-19 in longer-term context and also evaluate the potential implications of air taxi ports and revolutionary plane design. We do this through the lens of six key player types:

  • OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and their supply chain
  • Lessors
  • Operators
  • MROs (maintenance, repair and overhaul (organizations))
  • Airports
  • ANSPs (air navigation)

Disruption and its implications for the aviation sector

Major disruption is promised by a range of powerful new technologies and public pressure. Players that turn these trends to their advantage have the opportunity to reshape the industry. In Aviation 2030, we survey the landscape of the aviation industry, looking forward to the next decade and beyond.

What are the trends likely to impact the key players of the aviation sector? In this report, we outline three key disruptive forces that the sector must grapple with.

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