Share with your friends

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Global and Australian Forecasts – November 2018

Quarterly Economic Outlook – November 2018

The global economy has proved so far to be resilient to the growing backdrop of trade tensions, but this is suspected to change in the near future.

Brendan Rynne

Partner, Chief Economist

KPMG Australia


Also on

Ferry on Sydney Harbour

For most of 2018, the performance of many major economies has been strong, and KPMG Economics in our latest Quarterly Economic Outlook predicts that growth for 2018 will be 3.8 percent. This has been achieved without any significant inflationary pressures, although several countries are now tightening monetary policy in response to fears that the inflation genie might start scrambling out of the bottle.

Growth rates differ considerably of course. India’s recent rate is 8 percent, China’s is 6.5 percent, while Japan’s is 0.7 percent. In Europe meanwhile, the region-wide growth rate is 0.4 percent. And there have been some notable flashpoints of economic distress – notably Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey and South Africa. But overall, global economic growth has been fairly solid.

Going into 2019 there may be slightly weaker growth. This is due to a number of macroeconomic factors, but particularly a possible ratcheting-up of the US/China trade war – and the endgame of the Brexit saga. KPMG also queries the ability of emerging economies to manage their foreign-denominated debt exposure in the face of a strengthening USD, driven by rising bond yields in the US.

KPMG’s growth expectations for Australia in FY19 and FY20 remain positive, albeit softer than last year. Influences such as the extreme drought conditions and the acceleration in the downturn in the housing market are expected to be a drag on growth with GDP growth moderating to 2.8 percent and 2.4 percent respectively for the next two financial years.

Economic Outlook

© 2020 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”) is a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm.

Connect with us


Want to do business with KPMG?


loading image Request for proposal